Population Growth, Poverty Incidence and Crime Rate in Nigeria
- Dennis Terpase Nomor & Emmanuel Aondongusha Asue
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17512539
- ISA Journal of Business, Economics and Management (ISAJBEM)
This study investigates the dynamic interrelationship among population growth, poverty incidence, and crime rate in Nigeria. Drawing from both theoretical and empirical literature, the study explores how rapid demographic expansion influences economic outcomes and social stability. Thus, this study investigates the pass-through effect of population growth to crime rate as propelled by poverty incidence in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1980-2023. To achieve both the contemporaneous effects and long-term impact of shocks among the variables, the study employed structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model having confirmed that the variables were free from unit root problems and were cointegrated. The contemporaneous result of the SVAR shows that there was an inverse but insignificant relationship between poverty and crime rate in Nigeria in the short run. It was also found that, in the short run, poverty rate increases insignificantly as population growth increases in Nigeria. The study however found that as population growth increases in the country, there is a corresponding contemporaneous increase in crime rate. The impulse response results indicate that in the long run, an increase in poverty will increase the level of crime rate in the country and the variance decomposition forecast error variance indicates that there is a close relationship between population growth and crime rate in Nigeria. The findings emphasize that poverty serves as a transmission mechanism through which population growth affects crime. It recommends integrated long-term strategies targeting poverty reduction, population management, and crime prevention to foster sustainable development.
