Temporal Convergence in Global Longevity: A Panel ARDL Exploration of Life Expectancy Dynamics
- Olubunmi Temitope Olorunpomi; Emmanuel Oloruntoba Ajare; Wilson Simon Barguma; Toluwani John Dare
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20707426
- ISA Journal of Business, Economics and Management (ISAJBEM)
This study investigates the time-series and panel relationships among life expectancy at birth total (LEBT), life expectancy at birth for females (LEBF), and life expectancy at birth for males (LEBM) and evaluates their short-run and long-run behavior across selected countries. The time series plot, showed evident that all three series generally exhibit an upward trend over time, indicating a gradual improvement in life expectancy; moreover, female life expectancy remains higher than male life expectancy. The panel unit root tests in levels suggest a persistent upward trend in life expectancy over the study period. Panel ARDL model with lag structure ARDL (2, 2, 2) specification is selected as the optimal model based on the information criteria; thus, life expectancy dynamics are influenced not only by present conditions but also by their previous values. The disequilibrium in LEBT relative to the long-run equilibrium are adjusted by 8.4% for Benin, 4.2% for Cabo Verde, 4.1% for Ghana, 2.3% for Guinea Bissau, 1.8% for Cote d’voire, and 2.2% for Nigeria; moreover, Benin is quicker to the adjustment. The estimated combined speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is –0.038166, signifying that approximately 3.82% of the disequilibrium in total life expectancy is corrected within the succeeding year. Over time, 1% adjustments in LEBF and LEBM are projected to increase LEBT by about 0.49%, and 0.50%, respectively. The finding also suggests a strong interdependence between male, female, and total life expectancy, reflecting common underlying demographic, health, and socio-economic factors affecting longevity across the selected countries.