This article argues that the effectiveness of coercive financial statecraft depends not only on structural financial power but also on the quality of intelligence that makes coercive targeting discriminating and sustainable. Using a phased internal comparison of US financial pressure on Iran from 2018 to 2024, it develops a framework centred on sanctions design, financial intelligence precision, and target resilience. The analysis shows that calibrated pressure and sharper monitoring produced stronger early leverage, whereas prolonged coercion against adaptive networks raised the premium on attribution, monitoring, and recalibration. The article clarifies when coercive finance remains strategically usable.

Keywords: financial intelligence, coercive financial statecraft, sanctions effectiveness, financial warfare, weaponised interdependence, blowback, Iran.