The Effect of Population Dynamics on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Disaggregate Study
The Effect of Population Dynamics on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Disaggregate Study
- Esther Esara, PhD
- 10.5281/zenodo.21293584
- ISA Journal of Business, Economics and Management (ISAJBEM)
Literature on population dynamics and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria have mostly considered the effect of population growth (change in population) and not the effect of the change in the elements triggering the population growth and change in the characteristic/feature of the population such as the age structure -these are the dynamism. Resulting from this, most of the policy recommendations and decisions of government regarding population and growth lack focus. This study therefore examines the disaggregated effect of each element of population dynamics (birth rate, death rate, net migration and age structure) on economic growth in Nigeria. Annual secondary data on the Nigerian economy was used to carry out the study. Implementing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dynamic specification, we found out that in the short run and long run, aged population, birth rate and death rate had negative and significant effect on economic growth while labour population had positive and significant effect. Also, children population had a negative and significant effect in the short run and positive effect in the long run while net migration had a negative and significant effect in the long run. The paper recommends: increased focus on female education to increase the opportunity cost of raising children and reducing birth rate; increased job opportunities for optimal labour population participation; and government resolve to stop massive exodus of Nigerians (especially professionals) to other countries and continents