Global Tax Reform and Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Countries
- Yunusa, Acho; Shamsuddeen Y., B.; Ibahim K., M. & Michael Ezekiel Onuh
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23180932
- ISA Journal of Business, Economics and Management (ISAJBEM)
This study examines Global Tax Reform and Fiscal
Sustainability in Developing Countries: Opportunities and Challenges under the
OECD/G20 Two-Pillar Framework. The study employs a ex-post facto research
design using panel data econometrics, analyzing a balanced panel of 45
developing countries (35 African and 10 non-African) over the period 2015–2024,
with Nigeria examined separately as a case study. Data were sourced from the World
Bank, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, AfDB, and Nigerian national databases. Fiscal
sustainability was measured using a composite index of tax-to-GDP ratio,
revenue volatility, debt service ratio, and fiscal balance. Digital economy
taxation reforms and Pillar One allocation were operationalized as composite
indices capturing policy adoption, revenue mobilization, and administrative
digitization. Fixed effects regression results reveal that digital economy
taxation reforms exhibit a positive and highly significant effect on fiscal
sustainability (β = 0.0042, p < 0.01), while MNE tax allocation under Pillar
One shows a positive and significant relationship (β = 0.0028, p < 0.05),
though with smaller magnitude. The model explains 34.2% of within-country
variation in fiscal sustainability (R-squared = 0.342, F = 28.45, p <
0.001). The study concludes that fiscal sustainability in developing countries
is increasingly contingent on synergistic implementation of domestic digital
taxation and international profit allocation mechanisms. Recommendations
include strengthening domestic digital taxation capacity through legal
frameworks, administration digitization, and taxpayer education, and
accelerating Pillar One participation via regional coordination through the
African Union and ATAF to reduce implementation costs and enhance negotiating
leverage.
Keywords: Global
Tax Reform and Fiscal Sustainability.