Urban expansion and inadequate drainage influence pavement performance across different spatial scales. This study assessed land-cover change, runoff propensity, drainage condition and pavement condition in Aba, Nigeria, using two related but analytically separate pathways. Dynamic World V1 land-cover maps for 2015, 2020 and 2025 were classified into built-up area, vegetation, bare land and water. The proportional area of each class was combined with fixed screening coefficients derived from HEC-22 to determine a dimensionless weighted runoff-propensity coefficient (Cw). Drainage and pavement-condition data from thirteen purposively selected road corridors were analysed using a study-specific Drainage Condition Index (DCI) and a length-based Pavement Condition Index (PCI-L). Between 2015 and 2025, built-up area increased from 477.24 to 634.79 km², while vegetation decreased from 241.88 to 90.85 km². Over the same period, Cw increased from 0.710650 to 0.854725, indicating greater relative surface-runoff propensity. The fitted corridor model, PCI-L = -7.0564 + 1.0801(DCI), accounted for 42.9 per cent of the observed variation in pavement condition. The association was significant under conventional ordinary least squares estimation (p = 0.0151), while HC3 covariance estimation yielded p = 0.0553, showing that the strength of the statistical evidence varied with the uncertainty estimator. East Road, Okigwe Road, Ezi-Ukwu Road and Mosque Road were classified as high-priority corridors. The results support land-cover monitoring, drainage inspection and targeted pavement assessment while maintaining a clear distinction between planning-level screening and hydraulic or structural design.

Keywords: land-cover; runoff propensity; road drainage; pavement condition; scale-aware assessment.