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Population Growth and the Spatial Inequities of Air Pollution (PM2.5 and PM10) Distribution Across the Urban centres in Niger Delta Region, Nigeria

The study examined the relationship between population growth and spatial disparity in air pollution divulgence across four urban centres in the Niger Delta: Port Harcourt, Warri, Yenagoa, and Uyo. Using geospatial and statistical analyses tools, the study assessed PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ concentrations from 2000 to 2025 and forecasted trends of concentration to 2030. Port Harcourt recorded the highest PM₂.₅ levels at 85 µg/m³, primarily from gas flaring and traffic emissions, while Uyo showed the highest PM₁₀ levels at 150 µg/m³, attributed to road dust and construction activities. In a correlation analysis the study revealed strong associations between population density and pollutant levels (r = 0.693 for PM₂.₅; r = 0.654 for PM₁₀), while regression models confirmed that 99.9% of pollutant variance was explained by population growth (R² = 0.999). Inequality indices showed pronounced spatial disparities, with Gini coefficients of 0.217 for PM₂.₅ and 0.432 for PM₁₀, indicating environmental injustice across urban zones. Forecasts suggest PM₂.₅ levels will reach 69.4 µg/m³ and PM₁₀ levels 138.9 µg/m³ by 2030 in high-density areas, aligning with projected urban growth. The study contributes a spatially integrated, data-driven framework for assessing urban air quality disparities in developing regions. It recommends city-specific planning, targeted pollution control and investment in clean energy to reduce health risks. These insights are critical for designing equitable environmental policies and promoting sustainable urban development in the Niger Delta region, Nigeria.