Security Spending and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessing the Nexus between Defence Allocation and Growth
- Sa’ada Misbahu Zubair1, Dr. Sudha Mavuri2
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21427645
- ISA Journal of Business, Economics and Management (ISAJBEM)
Sub-Saharan Africa
has seen alarming increases in security issues in recent years, which has
imposed significant fiscal strains on governments, and negatively impacted
economic stability and sustainable development. The study analyzed the effect
of security expenditure on economic growth in 45 Sub-Saharan African countries
for the period 2000–2024 with the help of Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(Panel ARDL) model. The model reflects the dynamic short-run and long-run
characteristics of the security-expenditure/economic-growth relationship and
includes control variables, including gross fixed capital formation,
institutional quality, and trade openness. The empirical results confirm that
both short-term and long-term security spending have a positive and
statistically significant impact on economic growth, indicating that improving
the security situation leads to political stability, greater investor
confidence and enables productive economic activities. The positive and
significant long-run impact on economic growth is also supported by the gross
fixed capital formation, which illustrates the importance of infrastructure
development and capital investment in supporting economic growth. In contrast,
the quality of institutions is negatively related to economic growth,
suggesting that poor governance remains a major constraint on economic
development in the region and will require sustained efforts to address it,
particularly by tackling corruption, weak institutions, and poor regulatory
systems. Moreover, the positive and significant relationship found between
trade openness and economic growth further supports the positive impacts of
more openness to the global economy via trade and investment. The study
suggests that balanced policy mix of providing adequate security investment
along with thorough institutional reforms and improved trade integration is
needed to ensure sustainable economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It thus
calls for greater governance, greater transparency and accountability in
security spending, greater institutional effectiveness, and the greater
integration of regional and international trade to ensure long-term economic
stability, inclusive growth and sustainable development.
Keywords: Security Expenditure,
Economic Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Institutional Quality, Trade Openness,
Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Panel ARDL Model, Sustainable Development.